Kalshi and Polymarket contract prices, on the same probability
scale as the devigged sportsbook consensus. Each venue publishes its own
prices; the comparison across all three is the part nobody else shows, because
making it honestly means removing the bookmaker’s margin first.
Only venues that run their own order book get a price
column. Coinbase and Robinhood sell these same contracts but route to an
exchange rather than making a market, so their prices are that
exchange’s — they are listed as places to trade, not as separate
opinions.
| Contract | Mid | Bid | Ask | Spread | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: BUF (-1.5) Spread: BUF (-1.5) | 40.5% | 40.0% | 41.0% | 1.00% | $16k |
| Panthers vs. Bills Panthers vs. Bills | 53.5% | 53.0% | 54.0% | 1.00% | $8k |
| Spread: BUF (-2.5) Spread: BUF (-2.5) | 39.0% | 38.0% | 40.0% | 2.00% | $467 |
| CAR vs. BUF: O/U 37.5 CAR vs. BUF: O/U 37.5 | 52.5% | 51.0% | 54.0% | 3.00% | $0 |
| CAR vs. BUF: O/U 38.5 CAR vs. BUF: O/U 38.5 | 49.5% | 48.0% | 51.0% | 3.00% | $0 |
| Spread: CAR (-1.5) Spread: CAR (-1.5) | 50.0% | 49.0% | 51.0% | 2.00% | $0 |
Prices are probabilities: a contract settles at $1 if the event happens, so 14% means the market prices it at 14 cents. Contracts marked wide have a bid-ask spread over 5 points, which means the mid is not a price you could actually trade at. Sorted by traded volume, because a thin market at an extreme price is noise rather than signal.
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