Kalshi and Polymarket contract prices, on the same probability
scale as the devigged sportsbook consensus. Each venue publishes its own
prices; the comparison across all three is the part nobody else shows, because
making it honestly means removing the bookmaker’s margin first.
Only venues that run their own order book get a price
column. Coinbase and Robinhood sell these same contracts but route to an
exchange rather than making a market, so their prices are that
exchange’s — they are listed as places to trade, not as separate
opinions.
| Team | Polymarket | Kalshi | Sportsbook | Gap | Poly vol | Kalshi vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 1.65% | $1.2M | $2.0M |
| DAL | 4.7% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 1.49% | $1.0M | $3.5M |
| SEA | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 1.00% | $621k | $3.1M |
| CIN | 3.5% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 0.95% | $1.2M | $2.5M |
| NE | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 0.85% | $510k | $1.9M |
| MIA | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.74% | $1.2M | $1.1M |
| DET | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 0.65% | $1.1M | $1.2M |
| LA | 14.5% | 14.5% | 13.9% | 0.62% | $576k | $5.0M |
| GB | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 0.62% | $1.2M | $1.3M |
| BAL | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 0.60% | $1.0M | $2.1M |
| ARI | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.59% | $1.1M | $188k |
| HOU | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 0.54% | $1.8M | $2.2M |
| DEN | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 0.53% | $1.1M | $3.3M |
| CLE | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.51% | $1.2M | $470k |
| JAX | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 0.50% | $1.2M | $581k |
| SF | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 0.45% | $926k | $2.8M |
| CHI | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 0.45% | $1.0M | $2.3M |
| NO | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.45% | $1.5M | $2.2M |
| NYJ | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.42% | $1.9M | $276k |
| CAR | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.40% | $3.7M | $1.4M |
| PIT | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.38% | $1.0M | $836k |
| LAC | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 0.35% | $4.8M | $1.3M |
| TB | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 0.35% | $3.9M | $1.1M |
| IND | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.35% | $1.1M | $374k |
| NYG | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.35% | $847k | $2.1M |
| ATL | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.32% | $957k | $343k |
| LV | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.25% | $1.2M | $2.7M |
| PHI | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 0.19% | $1.1M | $1.6M |
| MIN | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 0.16% | $906k | $2.8M |
| WAS | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.15% | $865k | $2.1M |
| TEN | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.15% | $1.2M | $340k |
| BUF | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 0.01% | $538k | $2.8M |
All three columns are probabilities on the same scale. The sportsbook column is devigged consensus across every book in the feed; the exchange columns are mid-market and need no devigging because the contract settles at $1. Gap is the widest disagreement between venues for that team — it is a measure of how much the venues differ, not a claim that any of them is wrong. Analysis, not a wagering recommendation.
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