Kalshi and Polymarket contract prices, on the same probability
scale as the devigged sportsbook consensus. Each venue publishes its own
prices; the comparison across all three is the part nobody else shows, because
making it honestly means removing the bookmaker’s margin first.
Only venues that run their own order book get a price
column. Coinbase and Robinhood sell these same contracts but route to an
exchange rather than making a market, so their prices are that
exchange’s — they are listed as places to trade, not as separate
opinions.
| Contract | Mid | Bid | Ask | Spread | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Will New Orleans win the Pro Football NFC South Division? | 29.5% | 29.0% | 30.0% | 1.00% | $92k |
| Carolina Will Carolina win the Pro Football NFC South Division? | 22.5% | 22.0% | 23.0% | 1.00% | $70k |
| Atlanta Will Atlanta win the Pro Football NFC South Division? | 19.5% | 19.0% | 20.0% | 1.00% | $59k |
| Tampa Bay Will Tampa Bay win the Pro Football NFC South Division? | 30.5% | 30.0% | 31.0% | 1.00% | $36k |
Prices are probabilities: a contract settles at $1 if the event happens, so 14% means the market prices it at 14 cents. Contracts marked wide have a bid-ask spread over 5 points, which means the mid is not a price you could actually trade at. Sorted by traded volume, because a thin market at an extreme price is noise rather than signal.
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