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Prediction Markets

Kalshi and Polymarket contract prices, on the same probability scale as the devigged sportsbook consensus. Each venue publishes its own prices; the comparison across all three is the part nobody else shows, because making it honestly means removing the bookmaker’s margin first.
Only venues that run their own order book get a price column. Coinbase and Robinhood sell these same contracts but route to an exchange rather than making a market, so their prices are that exchange’s — they are listed as places to trade, not as separate opinions.

4 of 8,154 open contracts · Kalshi · mid-market · National Football Conference South Winner Trade at: Kalshi · Polymarket · Coinbase (routes to Kalshi) · Robinhood (routes to Kalshi)
ContractMidBid AskSpreadVolume
New Orleans
Will New Orleans win the Pro Football NFC South Division?
29.5%29.0%30.0%1.00%$92k
Carolina
Will Carolina win the Pro Football NFC South Division?
22.5%22.0%23.0%1.00%$70k
Atlanta
Will Atlanta win the Pro Football NFC South Division?
19.5%19.0%20.0%1.00%$59k
Tampa Bay
Will Tampa Bay win the Pro Football NFC South Division?
30.5%30.0%31.0%1.00%$36k

Prices are probabilities: a contract settles at $1 if the event happens, so 14% means the market prices it at 14 cents. Contracts marked wide have a bid-ask spread over 5 points, which means the mid is not a price you could actually trade at. Sorted by traded volume, because a thin market at an extreme price is noise rather than signal.

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