Kalshi and Polymarket contract prices, on the same probability
scale as the devigged sportsbook consensus. Each venue publishes its own
prices; the comparison across all three is the part nobody else shows, because
making it honestly means removing the bookmaker’s margin first.
Only venues that run their own order book get a price
column. Coinbase and Robinhood sell these same contracts but route to an
exchange rather than making a market, so their prices are that
exchange’s — they are listed as places to trade, not as separate
opinions.
| Contract | Mid | Bid | Ask | Spread | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Will Minnesota win the Pro Football NFC North Division? | 16.5% | 16.0% | 17.0% | 1.00% | $99k |
| Chicago Will Chicago win the Pro Football NFC North Division? | 24.5% | 24.0% | 25.0% | 1.00% | $83k |
| Green Bay Will Green Bay win the Pro Football NFC North Division? | 26.5% | 26.0% | 27.0% | 1.00% | $39k |
| Detroit Will Detroit win the Pro Football NFC North Division? | 34.5% | 34.0% | 35.0% | 1.00% | $39k |
Prices are probabilities: a contract settles at $1 if the event happens, so 14% means the market prices it at 14 cents. Contracts marked wide have a bid-ask spread over 5 points, which means the mid is not a price you could actually trade at. Sorted by traded volume, because a thin market at an extreme price is noise rather than signal.
21+ · Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.