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Prediction Markets

Kalshi and Polymarket contract prices, on the same probability scale as the devigged sportsbook consensus. Each venue publishes its own prices; the comparison across all three is the part nobody else shows, because making it honestly means removing the bookmaker’s margin first.
Only venues that run their own order book get a price column. Coinbase and Robinhood sell these same contracts but route to an exchange rather than making a market, so their prices are that exchange’s — they are listed as places to trade, not as separate opinions.

4 of 8,154 open contracts · Kalshi · mid-market · National Football Conference North Winner Trade at: Kalshi · Polymarket · Coinbase (routes to Kalshi) · Robinhood (routes to Kalshi)
ContractMidBid AskSpreadVolume
Minnesota
Will Minnesota win the Pro Football NFC North Division?
16.5%16.0%17.0%1.00%$99k
Chicago
Will Chicago win the Pro Football NFC North Division?
24.5%24.0%25.0%1.00%$83k
Green Bay
Will Green Bay win the Pro Football NFC North Division?
26.5%26.0%27.0%1.00%$39k
Detroit
Will Detroit win the Pro Football NFC North Division?
34.5%34.0%35.0%1.00%$39k

Prices are probabilities: a contract settles at $1 if the event happens, so 14% means the market prices it at 14 cents. Contracts marked wide have a bid-ask spread over 5 points, which means the mid is not a price you could actually trade at. Sorted by traded volume, because a thin market at an extreme price is noise rather than signal.

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