Kalshi and Polymarket contract prices, on the same probability
scale as the devigged sportsbook consensus. Each venue publishes its own
prices; the comparison across all three is the part nobody else shows, because
making it honestly means removing the bookmaker’s margin first.
Only venues that run their own order book get a price
column. Coinbase and Robinhood sell these same contracts but route to an
exchange rather than making a market, so their prices are that
exchange’s — they are listed as places to trade, not as separate
opinions.
| Contract | Mid | Bid | Ask | Spread | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones Will Daniel Jones win the Comeback Player of the Year? | 7.0% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 2.00% | $48k |
| Tucker Kraft Will Tucker Kraft win the Comeback Player of the Year? | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 1.00% | $38k |
| Patrick Mahomes Will Patrick Mahomes win the Comeback Player of the Year? | 33.5% | 31.0% | 36.0% | 5.00% | $23k |
| Malik Nabers Will Malik Nabers win the Comeback Player of the Year? | 7.5% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 1.00% | $21k |
| Joe Burrow Will Joe Burrow win the Comeback Player of the Year? | 0.5% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 1.00% | $21k |
| Tank Dell Will Tank Dell win the Comeback Player of the Year? | 4.0% | 3.0% | 5.0% | 2.00% | $19k |
| Kyler Murray Will Kyler Murray win the Comeback Player of the Year? | 16.5% | 16.0% | 17.0% | 1.00% | $16k |
| Kirk Cousins Will Kirk Cousins win the Comeback Player of the Year? | 2.0% | 1.0% | 3.0% | 2.00% | $14k |
| Travis Hunter Will Travis Hunter win the Comeback Player of the Year? | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 1.00% | $10k |
| Fred Warner Will Fred Warner win the Comeback Player of the Year? | 2.5% | 1.0% | 4.0% | 3.00% | $6k |
| Micah Parsons Will Micah Parsons win the Comeback Player of the Year? | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 1.00% | $6k |
| Jonathon Brooks Will Jonathon Brooks win the Comeback Player of the Year? | 5.0% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 2.00% | $5k |
| Tie/Co-Winners Will Tie/Co-Winners win the Comeback Player of the Year? | 0.5% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 1.00% | $3k |
| George Kittle Will George Kittle win the Comeback Player of the Year? | 3.0% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 2.00% | $2k |
| Nick Bosa Will Nick Bosa win the Comeback Player of the Year? | 4.0% | 3.0% | 5.0% | 2.00% | $2k |
| Michael Penix Jr. Will Michael Penix Jr. win the Comeback Player of the Year? | 2.5% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 1.00% | $2k |
Prices are probabilities: a contract settles at $1 if the event happens, so 14% means the market prices it at 14 cents. Contracts marked wide have a bid-ask spread over 5 points, which means the mid is not a price you could actually trade at. Sorted by traded volume, because a thin market at an extreme price is noise rather than signal.
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