Kalshi and Polymarket contract prices, on the same probability
scale as the devigged sportsbook consensus. Each venue publishes its own
prices; the comparison across all three is the part nobody else shows, because
making it honestly means removing the bookmaker’s margin first.
Only venues that run their own order book get a price
column. Coinbase and Robinhood sell these same contracts but route to an
exchange rather than making a market, so their prices are that
exchange’s — they are listed as places to trade, not as separate
opinions.
| Contract | Mid | Bid | Ask | Spread | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Donald Aaron Donald to compete in the Pro Football Game in 2026-27 season? | 88.5% | 88.0% | 89.0% | 1.00% | $397k |
| Jake Paul to play in a Pro Football game in the 2026-27 season Jake Paul to compete in a Pro Football game in the 2026-27 season? | 2.0% | 0.0% | 4.0% | 4.00% | $782 |
| Patrick Mahomeswide Patrick Mahomes to compete in the Los Angeles R vs Kansas City Pro Football ga | 49.5% | 1.0% | 98.0% | 97.00% | $0 |
Prices are probabilities: a contract settles at $1 if the event happens, so 14% means the market prices it at 14 cents. Contracts marked wide have a bid-ask spread over 5 points, which means the mid is not a price you could actually trade at. Sorted by traded volume, because a thin market at an extreme price is noise rather than signal.
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