Kalshi and Polymarket contract prices, on the same probability
scale as the devigged sportsbook consensus. Each venue publishes its own
prices; the comparison across all three is the part nobody else shows, because
making it honestly means removing the bookmaker’s margin first.
Only venues that run their own order book get a price
column. Coinbase and Robinhood sell these same contracts but route to an
exchange rather than making a market, so their prices are that
exchange’s — they are listed as places to trade, not as separate
opinions.
| Contract | Mid | Bid | Ask | Spread | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Will Cleveland win the Pro Football AFC North Division? | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 1.00% | $145k |
| Pittsburgh Will Pittsburgh win the Pro Football AFC North Division? | 16.5% | 16.0% | 17.0% | 1.00% | $103k |
| Cincinnati Will Cincinnati win the Pro Football AFC North Division? | 33.5% | 33.0% | 34.0% | 1.00% | $77k |
| Baltimore Will Baltimore win the Pro Football AFC North Division? | 44.5% | 44.0% | 45.0% | 1.00% | $58k |
Prices are probabilities: a contract settles at $1 if the event happens, so 14% means the market prices it at 14 cents. Contracts marked wide have a bid-ask spread over 5 points, which means the mid is not a price you could actually trade at. Sorted by traded volume, because a thin market at an extreme price is noise rather than signal.
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