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Prediction Markets

Kalshi and Polymarket contract prices, on the same probability scale as the devigged sportsbook consensus. Each venue publishes its own prices; the comparison across all three is the part nobody else shows, because making it honestly means removing the bookmaker’s margin first.
Only venues that run their own order book get a price column. Coinbase and Robinhood sell these same contracts but route to an exchange rather than making a market, so their prices are that exchange’s — they are listed as places to trade, not as separate opinions.

16 of 8,154 open contracts · Kalshi · mid-market · American Football Conference Champion Trade at: Kalshi · Polymarket · Coinbase (routes to Kalshi) · Robinhood (routes to Kalshi)
ContractMidBid AskSpreadVolume
Denver
Will Denver win the Pro Football AFC Championship?
8.5%8.0%9.0%1.00%$403k
Houston
Will Houston win the Pro Football AFC Championship?
9.5%9.0%10.0%1.00%$392k
Cincinnati
Will Cincinnati win the Pro Football AFC Championship?
8.5%8.0%9.0%1.00%$352k
Las Vegas
Will Las Vegas win the Pro Football AFC Championship?
1.5%1.0%2.0%1.00%$281k
Pittsburgh
Will Pittsburgh win the Pro Football AFC Championship?
2.5%2.0%3.0%1.00%$281k
Buffalo
Will Buffalo win the Pro Football AFC Championship?
15.5%15.0%16.0%1.00%$259k
Miami
Will Miami win the Pro Football AFC Championship?
0.5%0.0%1.0%1.00%$213k
Kansas City
Will Kansas City win the Pro Football AFC Championship?
11.5%11.0%12.0%1.00%$198k
New England
Will New England win the Pro Football AFC Championship?
9.5%9.0%10.0%1.00%$181k
Los Angeles C
Will Los Angeles C win the Pro Football AFC Championship?
10.5%10.0%11.0%1.00%$161k
New York J
Will New York J win the Pro Football AFC Championship?
0.5%0.0%1.0%1.00%$136k
Baltimore
Will Baltimore win the Pro Football AFC Championship?
12.5%12.0%13.0%1.00%$131k
Cleveland
Will Cleveland win the Pro Football AFC Championship?
0.5%0.0%1.0%1.00%$131k
Tennessee
Will Tennessee win the Pro Football AFC Championship?
1.5%1.0%2.0%1.00%$98k
Jacksonville
Will Jacksonville win the Pro Football AFC Championship?
6.5%6.0%7.0%1.00%$46k
Indianapolis
Will Indianapolis win the Pro Football AFC Championship?
3.5%3.0%4.0%1.00%$27k

Prices are probabilities: a contract settles at $1 if the event happens, so 14% means the market prices it at 14 cents. Contracts marked wide have a bid-ask spread over 5 points, which means the mid is not a price you could actually trade at. Sorted by traded volume, because a thin market at an extreme price is noise rather than signal.

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