Kalshi and Polymarket contract prices, on the same probability
scale as the devigged sportsbook consensus. Each venue publishes its own
prices; the comparison across all three is the part nobody else shows, because
making it honestly means removing the bookmaker’s margin first.
Only venues that run their own order book get a price
column. Coinbase and Robinhood sell these same contracts but route to an
exchange rather than making a market, so their prices are that
exchange’s — they are listed as places to trade, not as separate
opinions.
| Contract | Mid | Bid | Ask | Spread | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Will Denver win the Pro Football AFC Championship? | 8.5% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 1.00% | $403k |
| Houston Will Houston win the Pro Football AFC Championship? | 9.5% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 1.00% | $392k |
| Cincinnati Will Cincinnati win the Pro Football AFC Championship? | 8.5% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 1.00% | $352k |
| Las Vegas Will Las Vegas win the Pro Football AFC Championship? | 1.5% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.00% | $281k |
| Pittsburgh Will Pittsburgh win the Pro Football AFC Championship? | 2.5% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 1.00% | $281k |
| Buffalo Will Buffalo win the Pro Football AFC Championship? | 15.5% | 15.0% | 16.0% | 1.00% | $259k |
| Miami Will Miami win the Pro Football AFC Championship? | 0.5% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 1.00% | $213k |
| Kansas City Will Kansas City win the Pro Football AFC Championship? | 11.5% | 11.0% | 12.0% | 1.00% | $198k |
| New England Will New England win the Pro Football AFC Championship? | 9.5% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 1.00% | $181k |
| Los Angeles C Will Los Angeles C win the Pro Football AFC Championship? | 10.5% | 10.0% | 11.0% | 1.00% | $161k |
| New York J Will New York J win the Pro Football AFC Championship? | 0.5% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 1.00% | $136k |
| Baltimore Will Baltimore win the Pro Football AFC Championship? | 12.5% | 12.0% | 13.0% | 1.00% | $131k |
| Cleveland Will Cleveland win the Pro Football AFC Championship? | 0.5% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 1.00% | $131k |
| Tennessee Will Tennessee win the Pro Football AFC Championship? | 1.5% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.00% | $98k |
| Jacksonville Will Jacksonville win the Pro Football AFC Championship? | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 1.00% | $46k |
| Indianapolis Will Indianapolis win the Pro Football AFC Championship? | 3.5% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 1.00% | $27k |
Prices are probabilities: a contract settles at $1 if the event happens, so 14% means the market prices it at 14 cents. Contracts marked wide have a bid-ask spread over 5 points, which means the mid is not a price you could actually trade at. Sorted by traded volume, because a thin market at an extreme price is noise rather than signal.
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