Championship odds with the bookmaker margin removed. Quoted outright prices are not probabilities — a book’s field sums well over 100%, and that excess is its margin. 7 books · proportional devig.
| Team | Win prob | Model | Playoffs | Wins | Fair | Best | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | 13.9% | 14.8% | 79% | 10.7 | +621 | +550 | 7 |
| Buffalo Bills | 7.5% | 7.1% | 69% | 9.6 | +1232 | +1100 | 7 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 6.9% | 5.5% | 66% | 9.6 | +1341 | +1200 | 7 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 6.9% | 7.7% | 65% | 9.9 | +1353 | +1200 | 7 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 4.9% | 4.3% | 56% | 9.0 | +1939 | +1700 | 7 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 4.5% | 4.6% | 55% | 9.0 | +2108 | +1800 | 7 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 4.5% | 4.6% | 57% | 9.3 | +2141 | +1800 | 7 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 4.4% | 4.0% | 52% | 9.2 | +2179 | +1900 | 7 |
| New England Patriots | 4.3% | 5.1% | 62% | 9.3 | +2223 | +2000 | 7 |
| Detroit Lions | 4.1% | 3.9% | 55% | 9.4 | +2353 | +2000 | 7 |
| Houston Texans | 4.0% | 4.4% | 58% | 9.1 | +2377 | +2000 | 7 |
| Denver Broncos | 4.0% | 4.3% | 55% | 9.0 | +2419 | +2000 | 7 |
| Green Bay Packers | 4.0% | 4.2% | 52% | 9.2 | +2422 | +2500 | 7 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 3.7% | 2.4% | 50% | 8.8 | +2613 | +2200 | 7 |
| Chicago Bears | 3.2% | 3.5% | 49% | 9.1 | +3019 | +2700 | 7 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 3.2% | 2.6% | 43% | 8.6 | +3019 | +2500 | 7 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 2.7% | 2.9% | 49% | 8.7 | +3623 | +3300 | 7 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 1.7% | 1.6% | 37% | 8.5 | +5916 | +5000 | 7 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1.6% | 1.6% | 41% | 8.3 | +6156 | +6000 | 7 |
| Washington Commanders | 1.4% | 1.2% | 31% | 8.0 | +7095 | +6600 | 7 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 1.3% | 1.9% | 45% | 8.4 | +7382 | +6600 | 7 |
| New York Giants | 1.2% | 1.1% | 29% | 7.9 | +7937 | +7000 | 7 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 1.1% | 1.4% | 38% | 8.1 | +8864 | +8000 | 7 |
| New Orleans Saints | 0.9% | 1.4% | 39% | 8.2 | +10829 | +10000 | 7 |
| Carolina Panthers | 0.9% | 0.8% | 29% | 7.7 | +11062 | +10000 | 7 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 0.8% | 0.9% | 31% | 7.8 | +12030 | +13000 | 7 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 0.7% | 0.5% | 18% | 6.9 | +15153 | +15000 | 7 |
| Tennessee Titans | 0.5% | 0.6% | 23% | 7.3 | +18360 | +25000 | 7 |
| Cleveland Browns | 0.3% | 0.5% | 25% | 7.4 | +29506 | +25000 | 7 |
| New York Jets | 0.3% | 0.2% | 13% | 6.4 | +30008 | +40000 | 7 |
| Miami Dolphins | 0.2% | 0.4% | 18% | 6.9 | +48001 | +100000 | 7 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 0.2% | 0.2% | 11% | 6.7 | +61148 | +100000 | 7 |
Where Best beats Fair, a book is offering value at consensus. Analysis, not a wagering recommendation.
Model is 25,000 simulated 2026 seasons. Ratings are fitted to this board at weight 0.8 and blended with 2025 opponent-adjusted efficiency, so the two columns are related, not independent. Playoffs and Wins are quantities no book quotes here. Full detail at /v1/futures/model.